{"id":37717,"date":"2023-10-25T16:47:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-25T20:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/?p=37717"},"modified":"2023-10-25T16:47:07","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T20:47:07","slug":"hurricane-tammy-craziest-spaghetti-models-show-us-states-it-could-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/2023\/10\/25\/hurricane-tammy-craziest-spaghetti-models-show-us-states-it-could-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Tammy ‘Craziest’ Spaghetti Models Show US States It Could Hit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hurricane Tammy may be about to veer towards the U.S., bringing heavy rain and strong winds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spaghetti models of the storm show that some of its potential paths include it making landfall in Florida, or alternatively in North Carolina<\/a>, but that other possible paths could send it careening in the opposite direction into the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“This has to be among the craziest spaghetti models ever for a hurricane,” Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor of mathematics and computer science, posted to X, formerly Twitter<\/a>, over a model by meteorologist Levi Cowan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the National Hurricane Center, Tammy, which is currently a Category 1 hurricane, has “maximum sustained winds [that] have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spaghetti plots are a tangled cluster of all the potential paths that a storm could take, depending on the conditions it faces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Each spaghetti model represents the storms, in this case Tammy’s, path in a different weather model forecast,” Quinton Lawton told Newsweek. Lawton is a PhD researcher in atmospheric sciences at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“What weather models do is take in a lot of current weather data from around the world\u2014from satellites, weather instruments, aircraft observations\u2014and make a ‘best guess’ at what the atmosphere looks like at a given time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Then it solves a set of physics equations to predict what will happen to the weather in the future, based on those current conditions. Each weather model is slightly different in how it makes this initial best guess and in the details of how it solves these equations, so spaghetti models help us compare what different models are predicting into a single image,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has to be among the craziest spaghetti models ever for a hurricane. pic.twitter.com\/3zYAc7y2E2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) October 23, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some spaghetti plots are made using ensemble forecast systems, which involve a set of multiple weather forecasts being produced for each model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“What typically happens is that the initial ‘best guess’ of what the atmosphere looks like is randomly, and very slightly, adjusted prior to running each ‘member’ of the set of forecasts. What this does is give us an idea of the uncertainty of the forecast,” Lawton explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If those model plots stay close together even after this random adjustment, it gives us more certainty in the overall forecast. But when they are pretty spread apart, like now with Tammy, it indicates that there is more uncertainty in the forecast.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hurricane Tammy may be about to veer towards the U.S., bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Spaghetti models of the storm show that some of its potential paths include it… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37718,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"0","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","default_image_id":71799,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[694],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather-by-o"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}