{"id":64586,"date":"2026-04-09T19:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T23:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/?p=64586"},"modified":"2026-04-09T19:19:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T23:19:20","slug":"2026-hurricane-forecast-rolls-out-floridas-chances-to-get-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/2026\/04\/09\/2026-hurricane-forecast-rolls-out-floridas-chances-to-get-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 hurricane forecast rolls out Florida’s chances to get hit"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The first major outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong> was released today, April 9, 2026, by Colorado State University (CSU).<\/sup> Forecasters are currently predicting a slightly below-average season<\/strong> for Florida and the rest of the Atlantic basin.<\/sup>+1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The primary driver for this quieter forecast is the emergence of a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> pattern, which typically creates high wind shear that can tear apart developing storms.<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 Season Predictions (CSU)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Category<\/th>2026 Forecast<\/th>Historical Average<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Named Storms<\/strong><\/td>13<\/td>14.4<\/td><\/tr>
Hurricanes<\/strong><\/td>6<\/td>7.2<\/td><\/tr>
Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)<\/strong><\/td>2<\/td>3.2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Florida’s Specific Landfall Probabilities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While the numbers are lower than usual, experts emphasize that Florida remains the most vulnerable state in the country. The probability of at least one major hurricane<\/strong> (Category 3 or higher) making landfall in 2026 is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Florida Peninsula (East Coast\/South):<\/strong> 15%<\/strong> (Historical average: 21%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Florida Panhandle (Gulf Coast):<\/strong> 20%<\/strong> (Historical average: 27%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Additionally, there is a 74% chance<\/strong> that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of the Florida coastline at some point this season.<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why the “Tamer” Forecast?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Meteorologists are tracking what some call a “Super El Ni\u00f1o” developing in the Pacific.<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Wind Shear:<\/strong> These warmer Pacific waters strengthen westerly winds in the upper atmosphere. This creates “shear” that prevents tropical waves from organizing into mature hurricanes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Cooler Waters:<\/strong> Parts of the eastern Atlantic, where many large “Cape Verde” storms are born, are currently showing cooler-than-normal surface temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      A Note on Complacency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      Forecasters are quick to point out that a “below-average” year does not mean “no impact.”<\/sup> They frequently cite 1992<\/strong> as the ultimate warning\u2014a very quiet year that produced only six named storms, yet the first one was Hurricane Andrew<\/strong>, which devastated South Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The official NOAA forecast is expected to be released in late May, just before the season officially begins on June 1<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The first major outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was released today, April 9, 2026, by Colorado State University (CSU). Forecasters are currently predicting a slightly below-average season for… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"694","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvaTAud3AuY29tXC9sYWtlbGFuZGdhemV0dGUuaW5mb1wvbmV3c1wvd3AtY29udGVudFwvdXBsb2Fkc1wvMjAyNlwvMDRcL1NjcmVlbnNob3QtMjAyNi0wNC0wOVQxOTE4MDEuNTA0LndlYnA_Zml0PTI3NiUyQzE0MiZzc2w9MSIsInR4dCI6IjIwMjYgaHVycmljYW5lIGZvcmVjYXN0IHJvbGxzIG91dCBGbG9yaWRhJiM4MjE3O3MgY2hhbmNlcyB0byBnZXQgaGl0IiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJkb2lzIiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE2MzA0MDY2MX0.1S18xeyri4tdKh4AeMo2tZn8jl15jL_SIDSTszp5hT4MQ"},"version":2,"media_source":"sig","attached_media":[{"id":0,"url":"https:\/\/jetpack.com\/redirect\/?source=sigenerate&query=t%3DeyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvbGFrZWxhbmRnYXpldHRlLmluZm9cL25ld3NcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjZcLzA0XC9TY3JlZW5zaG90LTIwMjYtMDQtMDlUMTkxODAxLjUwNC53ZWJwIiwidHh0IjoiMjAyNiBodXJyaWNhbmUgZm9yZWNhc3Qgcm9sbHMgb3V0IEZsb3JpZGEncyBjaGFuY2VzIHRvIGdldCBoaXQiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImRvaXMiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTYzMDQwNjYxfQ.Vl07zl-no8e-l_adHueDwoV4HvQaXE19YkonhAICXIIMQ","type":"image\/jpeg"}]},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[694],"tags":[14336],"class_list":["post-64586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weather-by-o","tag-2026-hurricane-forecast-rolls-out-floridas-chances-to-get-hit"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64586"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64586\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64588,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64586\/revisions\/64588"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}