{"id":66272,"date":"2026-05-21T12:04:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/?p=66272"},"modified":"2026-05-21T12:04:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:04:17","slug":"noaa-calls-for-below-average-hurricane-season-for-first-time-since-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/2026\/05\/21\/noaa-calls-for-below-average-hurricane-season-for-first-time-since-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0NOAA calls for below average hurricane season for first time since 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yes, they did! NOAA released its initial seasonal outlook today, and for the first time in 11 years, forecasters are officially predicting a below-average<\/strong> Atlantic hurricane season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a major shift after a decade dominated by mostly above-normal or hyperactive seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Shift? The El Ni\u00f1o Factor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The driving force behind this milder forecast is a developing El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> in the Pacific, which is expected to strengthen significantly by the peak of the season (August through October).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o fundamentally changes global atmospheric patterns. It creates strong vertical wind shear<\/strong>\u2014strong, upper-level winds moving across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.<\/sup> This wind shear essentially rips developing storms apart before they can organize into powerful hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the Numbers: 2026 Forecast vs. Average<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

NOAA has placed a 55% probability on a below-normal season<\/strong>, predicting ranges that fall comfortably below what we typically see in a standard year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Metric<\/strong><\/td>NOAA 2026 Forecast<\/strong><\/td>Average Season (1991-2020)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
Named Storms<\/strong><\/td>8 to 14<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
Hurricanes<\/strong><\/td>3 to 6<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
Major Hurricanes<\/strong> (Cat 3+)<\/em><\/td>1 to 3<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Golden Rule: “It Only Takes One”<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While this news brings a collective sigh of relief for coastal and inland communities alike, meteorologists and emergency officials are already urging everyone not to let their guard down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A below-average overall<\/em> season doesn’t mean a quiet year for landfalls. A prime historical example is the 1992 season: it was highly suppressed and produced only seven named storms, but the very first one was Hurricane Andrew<\/strong>, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5.<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because local steering currents and daily weather setups determine exactly where a storm travels\u2014things that can’t be predicted months in advance\u2014the standard advice remains the exact same: keep your hurricane supply kits stocked and your evacuation plans ready to go by June 1st.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yes, they did! NOAA released its initial seasonal outlook today, and for the first time in 11 years, forecasters are officially predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. This is a… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66273,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"14","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvaTAud3AuY29tXC9sYWtlbGFuZGdhemV0dGUuaW5mb1wvbmV3c1wvd3AtY29udGVudFwvdXBsb2Fkc1wvMjAyNlwvMDVcL0dlbWluaV9HZW5lcmF0ZWRfSW1hZ2VfZWhsdzQxZWhsdzQxZWhsdy53ZWJwP2ZpdD0xMDI0JTJDNTU5JnNzbD0xIiwidHh0IjoiXHUwMGEwTk9BQSBjYWxscyBmb3IgYmVsb3cgYXZlcmFnZSBodXJyaWNhbmUgc2Vhc29uIGZvciBmaXJzdCB0aW1lIHNpbmNlIDIwMTUiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImRvaXMiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTYzMDQwNjYxfQ.8lMy6kZSM0U4k5bTRZsKgsv9lLZKniXIJnL8_5VtLjQMQ"},"version":2,"media_source":"sig","attached_media":[{"id":0,"url":"https:\/\/jetpack.com\/redirect\/?source=sigenerate&query=t%3DeyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvbGFrZWxhbmRnYXpldHRlLmluZm9cL25ld3NcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjZcLzA1XC9HZW1pbmlfR2VuZXJhdGVkX0ltYWdlX2VobHc0MWVobHc0MWVobHctMTAyNHg1NTkud2VicCIsInR4dCI6Ilx1MDBhME5PQUEgY2FsbHMgZm9yIGJlbG93IGF2ZXJhZ2UgaHVycmljYW5lIHNlYXNvbiBmb3IgZmlyc3QgdGltZSBzaW5jZSAyMDE1IiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJkb2lzIiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE2MzA0MDY2MX0.zJxCrOweHh9MEL_Gf5V2Rdk48teCRqoNJn8YsrAQDIwMQ","type":"image\/jpeg"}]},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[14],"tags":[14664],"class_list":["post-66272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-noaa-calls-for-below-average-hurricane-season-for-first-time-since-2015"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66272"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66272\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66274,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66272\/revisions\/66274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lakelandgazette.info\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}