The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring three areas of interest in the Atlantic basin. Headline reports mentioning three systems often refer to past multi-system outlooks or include active Pacific activity being monitored concurrently by the NHC.
Here is the breakdown of the two Atlantic tropical waves currently on the NHC’s radar:
1. Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic System
- Status: A strong tropical wave expected to roll off the west coast of Africa early this week.
- Outlook: Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development once it moves over water. A tropical depression could form during the latter half of the week as it tracks west-northwestward across the Atlantic.
- Formation Chance: 50% over the next 7 days (Medium).
2. Central Tropical Atlantic System
- Status: A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
- Outlook: Some slight, gradual development is possible early to mid-week while moving westward. However, upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development later in the week as the system nears the Lesser Antilles.
- Formation Chance: 20% over the next 7 days (Low).
Season Context
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has had a relatively slow start due in part to a strong El Niño pattern. So far, only two named storms have formed (Arthur and Bertha). If either of these emerging systems strengthens into a tropical storm, it will take the name Cristobal.
While overall activity is projected to remain near or below average this year, atmospheric activity typically begins ramping up as mid-August approaches the climatological peak of the season.