A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael by Monday, the National Hurricane Center said. It is expected to pass near Jamaica by Monday night.
As of 4 p.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 was 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 515 miles southeast of Grand Cayman with sustained winds of 35 mph, and moving northeast at 7 mph.
It is expected to continue to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Rafael, the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. Tropical storm watches may be issued for those in the Florida Keys, the NHC said.
Is Tropical Storm Rafael headed toward Florida?
According to FOX 35 meteorologists, the system may strengthen into a weak hurricane as it moves toward Cuba and the Florida Keys, though it is still too early to know its exact track.
Most computer models do not show a potential landfall in Central or Southern Florida. Instead, they show the potential system staying west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico and headed towards the U.S. Gulf coast – Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.
It could be a similar track to Hurricane Debby or Hurricane Helene, Garner said.
Again, it is too early to know exactly where this potential system will travel, at what intensity, or if it will be a tropical storm or hurricane.
“Even though Rafael is expected to reach Cuba and perhaps the Keys as a minimal hurricane, the cooler Gulf waters characteristic of this time of year, along with higher wind shear, should weaken it to a tropical storm by the time it reaches our latitude,” said Garner.
Florida will still feel impacts
FOX 35 meteorologist Brooks Garner said even though the system is likely to stay off of Florida’s western coast, Central Florida would likely see some impacts.
The timeline is Wednesday and Thursday, as of the latest projections. Heavy rainfall, between 2″-5″, leading to ponding or flooding in some areas is possible, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.
“Flooding presents the most significant threat to our region, with a medium risk level. We anticipate widespread rainfall between 2 and 6 inches along this trajectory, with higher totals expected north of Interstate 4,” said Garner.
“Many homes in these counties were previously flooded by Milton and are still grappling with saturated ground, increasing the likelihood of flooding in vulnerable areas. A few isolated tornadoes are possible on Wednesday. Additionally, large tree limbs, already weakened by Milton, could succumb to gusts ranging from 35 to 50 mph, posing further hazards.”
What we do not know
The system hasn’t technically formed yet. So, we do not know yet what its official track or intensity will be. This is starting to firm up more and more. The FOX 35 team will continue to monitor over the next few days.
When does hurricane season end?
Hurricane season runs June 1 – November 30, 2024.
So far this year, we’ve had 16 named storms, and if Rafael forms, it would mark the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.
Of the 16, there have been five tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.
Second disturbance near Greater Antilles
A second disturbance is east of Invest 97L near the Greater Antilles Islands. As of Sunday, it was located a couple of hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas.
It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It has a low chance of development over the next two days, and is expected to be absorbed by Invest 97L.
“This system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas,” the NHC said