Hurricane Melissa strengthened into a Category 4 storm as it churned northwest through the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A Hurricane Warning — meaning that hurricane conditions are expected — was in effect for Jamaica as of early Sunday, the NHC said.
A Hurricane Watch — meaning that hurricane conditions are possible — was in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and the southeastern regions of Cuba.
The multi-day event of torrential rainfall is expected to cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, as well as destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge through Tuesday.
“Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 140 mph (220 kmph) with higher gusts,” the NHC bulletin reported on Sunday. “Continued rapid intensification is expected through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity.”
“Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday,” the advisory said.
The NHC has warned of “extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities” in Jamaica and southwestern Haiti.
Melissa could progress to a Category 5 storm — with sustained winds up to 160 mph — before it makes landfall. The hurricane could be the strongest to impact Jamaica in more than 35 years, since the Category 4 Hurricane Gilbert hit the island in 1988.
The hurricane is expected to pass across southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, the NHC said.
The storm is forecast to bring between 15 and 30 inches of rain to parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday. Up to 40 inches could fall in some places, the bulletin said. “Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,” it said.
Eastern Cuba is expected to see between 6 and 18 inches of rainfall, also possibly prompting dangerous flash flooding and landslides.
Dangerous storm surges, surf, and rip currents are also forecast. The NHC warned that the southern coast of Jamaica would see a “life-threatening storm surge” from late Monday through Tuesday morning, peaking between 9 and 13 feet above ground level.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently inside Hurricane Melissa
P-3 Orion: Into the Storm
Slicing through the eyewall of a hurricane, buffeted by howling winds, blinding rain and violent updrafts and downdrafts before entering the relative calm of the storm’s eye, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion four-engine turboprop aircraft, affectionately nicknamed “Kermit” (N42RF) and “Miss Piggy” (N43RF), probe every wind and pressure change, repeating the often grueling experience again and again during the course of an 8-10 hour mission.
Scientists aboard the aircraft deploy Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwindsondes as NOAA Corps officers pilot and navigate the P-3 through the hurricane. These instruments continuously transmit measurements of pressure, humidity, temperature, and wind direction and speed as they fall toward the sea, providing a detailed look at the structure of the storm and its intensity. The P-3s’ tail Doppler radar and lower fuselage radar systems, meanwhile, scan the storm vertically and horizontally, giving scientists and forecasters a real-time look at the storm. The P-3s can also deploy probes called bathythermographs that measure the temperature of the sea.
Storm surge forecasts have benefited from the addition of NOAA-developed Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometers (SFMRs) to NOAA’s P-3s. SFMRs measure over-ocean wind speed and rain rate in hurricanes and tropical storms, key indicators of potentially deadly storm surges. Surge is a major cause of hurricane-related deaths.
In addition to conducting research to help scientists better understand hurricanes and other kinds of tropical cyclones, NOAA’s P-3s participate in storm reconnaissance missions when tasked to do so by the NOAA National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center. The purpose of these missions is primarily to locate the center of the storm and measure central pressure and surface winds around the eye. (The U.S. Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron also supports this mission with their WC-130J aircraft.) Information from both research and reconnaissance flights directly contribute to the safety of people living along and visiting the vulnerable Atlantic and Gulf coasts.