Florida’s 2026 Amendment 3, concerning property-tax reductions, could significantly reduce the money available to Polk County government and its 17 municipalities for public safety, fire protection, roads, parks, libraries, and other services.
The estimates are substantial. Depending on which projection is used, Polk County and its local governments could face hundreds of millions of dollars in lost property-tax revenue.
The important distinction: Amendment 3 does not eliminate school property taxes. It increases the homestead exemption for other local-government property-tax levies and changes the assessment cap on non-homestead properties.
1. Polk County’s projected losses
The latest compilation of Florida TaxWatch and state Revenue Estimating Conference figures provides the following estimates:
All local taxing authorities in Polk County · First year, FY 2027–28
$138.7 million
Polk County government $99.2 million
All 17 municipalities $35.5 million
Independent special districts $4.0 million
Estimated five-year cumulative reduction
$1.336 billion
2. What each Polk County city could lose
These are projected losses for the first year, beginning in fiscal year 2027–28, and cumulative losses over five years.
| City | First-year loss | Five-year loss |
|---|---|---|
| Lakeland | $9.51M | $93.33M |
| Winter Haven | $6.99M | $67.51M |
| Haines City | $5.58M | $58.21M |
| Davenport | $2.65M | $27.11M |
| Lake Wales | $2.25M | $20.73M |
| Bartow | $2.08M | $18.96M |
| Auburndale | $1.96M | $19.48M |
| Lake Alfred | $1.04M | $9.93M |
| Eagle Lake | $797K | $7.91M |
| Dundee | $791K | $7.28M |
| Fort Meade | $496K | $3.96M |
| Lake Hamilton | $389K | $3.90M |
| Polk City | $325K | $3.16M |
| Mulberry | $312K | $3.22M |
| Frostproof | $277K | $2.54M |
| Highland Park | $56K | $519K |
| Hillcrest Heights | $4K | $32K |
Source: Florida Local Fee Watch compilation of Florida TaxWatch estimates and state data. Amounts rounded.
3. What services could be affected?
Local officials have discussed several possible consequences:
- Sheriff and public safety: Reduced funding for law enforcement support, crossing guards, animal control, and other services.
- Fire and EMS: New fire assessment fees or other charges to property owners.
- Parks and recreation: Reduced programs, operating hours, and maintenance.
- Libraries: Reduced staffing and operating budgets.
- Roads and infrastructure: Delayed road improvements and maintenance.
- City employees: Hiring freezes, eliminated positions and departmental budget reductions.
Lakeland officials have discussed the possibility of eliminating approximately 165 positions under their preliminary budget-reduction scenarios.
4. Why are there different estimates?
Several projections are circulating:
| Source | Polk County estimate |
|---|---|
| July 2026 Property Appraiser analysis | $98M annually at the first exemption level |
| County Commission Chair, September 2026 | $70M first year; $102M second year |
| State-estimate compilation, FY 2027–28 | $99.2M first year |
These estimates use different assumptions, tax rates, and calculation methods. They should not be added together.
5. An important development: Amendment 3 passed
Approved November 3, 2026
Florida voters approved Amendment 3 with approximately 62% voting yes. It takes effect January 1, 2027, and first applies to the 2027 tax roll.
My biggest takeaway: Polk County government alone could lose approximately $99 million in the first year under the state-estimate compilation. The combined impact on the county, cities, and special districts is approximately $138.7 million in that first fiscal year.
The five-year projected loss of $1.336 billion deserves particular attention.