AccuWeather meteorologists published their first path for potential Tropical Storm Sara on Wednesday morning after chances that the storm will form in the next two days jumped by 30 percent.
As of Wednesday morning, there were no named storms in the Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a system with a high risk of development in the Caribbean. On Tuesday, the chances that the system would strengthen into a named storm were at 60 percent, a risk that has since risen to 90 percent, according to the most recent NHC update.
When the storm develops, it will officially become Tropical Storm Sara, the 18th named storm of the season.
Tropical Storm Sara’s Path Aims at Florida
The NHC hasn’t yet published an official path for the storm, but AccuWeather’s forecast shows Sara becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning and further strengthening into a hurricane by Friday. After nearing Honduras on Saturday morning, Sara will skirt around the Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 3 major hurricane and then head into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will take aim at Florida.
It is unclear if direct landfall will occur because wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt the storm’s progression. Hurricane Rafael also moved into the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month, but strong winds caused the storm to dissolve before it reached the U.S.
However, Gulf waters are warmer than average for this time of year, providing adequate fuel if the hurricane remains organized.
Tropical Storm Sara’s Impacts
The looming storm comes roughly a month after Florida battled two back-to-back hurricanes: Hurricane Helene in late September and Hurricane Milton in October.
If the storm does make landfall, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek, it would be past its peak and its strength would be winding down, though impacts from coastal flooding, heavy rain and strong winds could still be possible.
By next Wednesday, AccuWeather anticipates the storm will have weakened to a Category 2 hurricane. DaSilva said that if Sara does make landfall in South Florida, it would likely be between November 19 and 22.
The NHC forecast added that the system will bring heavy rain to Jamaica regardless of whether a storm develops.
When Will Tropical Storm Sara Form?
The NHC anticipates that Tropical Storm Sara will form within the next two days.
The NHC forecast said: “A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
“Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend,” the NHC said. “The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.”
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Wednesday, the NHC said.