A new statewide poll shows support for Amendment 3 falling short of the 60% threshold it would need to pass in November.
The proposed constitutional amendment would gradually increase Florida’s homestead exemption and could ultimately pave the way for the state to eliminate homestead property taxes.
According to a St. Pete Polls survey conducted Sept. 15-17, 44.9% of 913 Florida voters surveyed said they would support Amendment 3. Another 30.4% said they would oppose it, while 24.8% remained undecided.
That represents a significant shift from a University of North Florida poll conducted in late July. That survey found 61% support for the proposal when voters were asked about it without additional context.
But support dropped to 45% when voters were told the amendment could result in a nearly $12 billion budget shortfall for local governments.
Political experts who spoke said the latest polling could reflect the growing campaign against Amendment 3 — and the lack of a similarly organized campaign in support of it.
“There was nobody that really picked up the torch and ran with that right after it got completed by the courts and put onto the ballot, and the money is not there behind it,” said Dr. Lars Hafner. “The opposition has public servants standing up and saying this is not a good thing.”
Local officials and law enforcement agencies have increasingly raised concerns about how eliminating or reducing property tax revenue could affect funding for essential services.
A recent Florida Sheriffs Association advertisement features Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd and Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri urging voters to reject the amendment. The sheriffs argue the proposal could threaten funding for public safety services.
“I do think that message is working because people want to have police officers and firefighters show up for their public safety purposes,” Hafner said.
Florida Realtors is among the groups supporting Amendment 3. The organization has argued the proposal would provide tax relief to homeowners seeking more affordability in Florida. The organization became the first major group to publicly support the amendment.
“So far you have more groups lined up against it, and the more that they are able to get their message out, the more likely it is that voters will ultimately say no to this particular proposal,” UCF Political Science Professor Aubrey Jewett said.
Gov. Ron DeSantis originally proposed the property tax measure, but his recent comments about the campaign have been mixed.
“First he was for it. Then, he was against it. Now, he’s still for it, but he’s not really going to campaign for it because he doesn’t think it’s going to pass,” Hafner said.
With nearly two months remaining before Election Day, Hafner said the numbers could still change.
“There is time, but it’s going to have to be a big and dramatic change,” he said.